国家发展私改革委员会经济研究所所长陈东琪日前表示,突如其来的非典对经济的影响显而易见,但中国经济新一轮周期性繁荣趋势不会逆转,“加速增长”的链条不会断裂,今年仍可获得“保七(7%)争八(8%)”的业绩,明年增长8%以上是可以预期的,各方面的最新迹象显示经济的活力依然强劲。陈东琪认为,现阶段,推动中国经济快速增长的发动机,是占国内生产总值45%左右的第二产业,特别是工业。这个产业受非典影响比较小。非典疫情蔓延和高峰期间,中、西部加快推进新型工业化势头不减,国内私人和国有工业生产正常,沿海地区的外资带动型工业持续增长,外资仍保持了快速发展势头。即使是疫情最严重的北京,4月份的外国常驻机构备案数依然稳步上升,单月新增31家,同期没有一家外商投资企业停产。这些都说明外商对未来中国经济发展充满信心。作为国民经济增长的“稳定部分”的第一产业特别是农业,占国民生产总值21%左右,其产品出口特别是蔬菜和畜牧产品出口 Chen Dongqi, director of the Institute for Economic Development of the State Private Reform Commission, said recently that the sudden impact of the SARS on the economy is obvious. However, the cyclical boom of China’s economy will not be reversed and the chain of “accelerated growth” will not break this year (7%) and “8% (8%)” are still to be expected. An increase of 8% or more is expected next year. The latest indications in all aspects show that the economy is still robust. Chen Dongqi believes that at this stage, the engine that promotes the rapid economic growth in China is a secondary industry that accounts for about 45% of the GDP, especially the industry. The industry is less affected by SARS. During the peak and spread of the SARS epidemic, accelerating the momentum of new-type industrialization in central and western China, normal domestic private and state-owned industrial production, continued growth of foreign-capital-driven industries in the coastal areas and the rapid growth of foreign investment still maintained. Even in Beijing, where the outbreak is the most serious, the number of foreign resident institutions registered in April continued to increase steadily, increasing by 31 in a single month. No single foreign-invested enterprise was discontinued in the same period. All this shows that foreign investors are full of confidence in the future economic development in China. As the “stable part” of national economic growth, the primary industry, especially agriculture, accounts for about 21% of the GNP. Exports of its products, especially vegetables and livestock products,