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在1992年基线调查的3267例55岁以上的老年人群的基础上，纵向随访调查2年，其中死亡363例。按存活与死亡分析其在1992年调查时的健康目评、生活自理能力（ADL，IADL），慢性病及部分体检格标．以了解这些评价老年人健康的指标对死亡的预测价值。结果显示，健康目评生活自理能力（ADL，IADL）是有价值的预测死亡的指标，有生活依赖及／或健康目评差的老人2年内死亡率高于无生活依赖及／或健康自评好的。有无慢性病及患慢性病的数量与死亡率无关，但有慢性病并对生活活动产生影响者较有慢性病对生活活动无影响者死亡较高，对死亡有预测意义。体检指标显示，死亡组老人的体重指数低（属消瘦型），血脂水平也低于存活组。
Based on the 1992 baseline survey of 3,267 older people over 55 years of age, a longitudinal follow-up survey was conducted for 2 years, with 363 deaths. According to the survival and death analysis of its 1992 survey of health assessment, self-care ability (ADL, IADL), chronic diseases and some medical examination criteria. To understand the predictive value of these indicators for assessing the health of the elderly on death. The results showed that the health assessment of life self-care ability (ADL, IADL) is a valuable predictor of death. The elderly who have a dependency on life and/or poor health assessment have a higher mortality rate than those without life dependence and/or self-evaluation of health. Ok. There was no relationship between the number of chronic diseases and chronic diseases and the mortality rate, but those who had chronic diseases and affected living activities had more deaths than chronic diseases that had no effect on living activities, which had predictive significance for death. Physical examination indicators showed that the elderly in the death group had a low body mass index (isweight loss) and the blood lipid level was also lower than that of the surviving group.