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安全注水压力是保持海上油田盖层完整性及控制溢油风险的关键指标之一。为有效降低溢油事故发生的可能性,建立FLAC3D软件和蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)相结合的(FMCS)盖层破坏概率预测模型。以SZ36-1油田某井注水过程为实例,开展FMCS模型的应用研究。运用FLAC3D软件建立储盖层模型,模拟不同注水压力下的破坏情况,确定保持盖层完整性的最大安全注水压力值。考虑注水井地层物性参数的不确定性对最大安全注水压力的影响,应用MCS预测盖层发生破坏时的注水压力概率分布范围。结果表明,保持盖层封盖完整性的最大安全注水压力值为29 MPa,敏感参数黏聚力对最大安全注水压力值有重要影响,破坏概率分布范围表明盖层发生破坏的风险较低。
Safe water injection pressure is one of the key indicators to maintain the integrity of the offshore oil cap and control the risk of oil spills. In order to effectively reduce the possibility of oil spill accidents, a prediction model of cover failure probability based on FLAC3D software and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was established. Taking a well injection process in SZ36-1 oilfield as an example, the application research of FMCS model was carried out. FLAC3D software is used to establish the reservoir cap model to simulate the damage under different water injection pressure and determine the maximum safe water injection pressure value to ensure the integrity of the cap layer. Considering the influence of the uncertainty of physical property parameters of injection well on the maximum safe water injection pressure, the probability distribution of water injection pressure in predicting the failure of cap rock is predicted by MCS. The results show that the maximum safe water injection pressure is 29 MPa. The cohesion of sensitive parameters has an important influence on the maximum safe water injection pressure. The probability distribution of failure shows that the risk of damage to the cover is low.