前言有科学依据的地震预报的诞生清楚地说明了工程行业的机会及问题。本文旨在确定和讨论围绕这一新兴技术的问题性质。当期待对一次破坏性地震作出成功预报时,许多地球物理学家或地球科学家们也许一致认为,地震预报技术正在迅速发展,同时,在美国密布测震仪器地区正在“酝酿”的一次地震很有可能被报准。鉴于这样一种进展形势,似乎有必要在第一个公开的地震预报之前来探讨一下某些重大问题,因为目前可以采取一些措施以避免麻烦,同时来增强预先警报的实用性。本文研究的依据是笔者参与地震预报社会经济含义的三年调查结果。所进行的调查研究主要是检验社会对若干典型地震预报形势作出反响的行为基础。这些“典型预报事例”向加州75个私营组 Preface The birth of a science-based earthquake prediction clearly illustrates the opportunities and issues in the engineering industry. This article aims to identify and discuss the nature of the issues surrounding this emerging technology. While looking forward to making a successful prediction of a destructive earthquake, many geophysicists or earth scientists may agree that seismic prediction techniques are rapidly evolving and that an earthquake “brewing” in the area of ​​densely measured seismographs in the United States is significant May be approved. Given such a situation, it seems necessary to explore some major issues before the first public earthquake prediction, since steps can be taken to avoid any hassles and at the same time enhance the usefulness of advance warning. The basis of this study is the author’s participation in the three-year investigation of the socio-economic implications of earthquake prediction. The main research carried out is to test the behavior of the society in response to some typical earthquake prediction situations. These “classic forensics” report to 75 private groups in California