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一、引言近年来,消费理论研究领域出现了两个引人注目的分支:预防性储蓄和流动性约束假说,这对于分析中国的居民消费行为提供了一个崭新的视角,因为1978年以来的消费波动确实存在着许多传统理论难以解释的问题。目前,国内已经有学者开始运用这些新理论对消费问题进行研究。宋铮(1999)较早地把收入的不确定性对中国居民储蓄的影响定量化,这无疑是一个很重要的开端,但他对预期值的处理过于简单化,不确定性变量的选取也欠准确。之
I. INTRODUCTION In recent years, two striking branches of consumer theory research have emerged: the hypothesis of preventive savings and liquidity constraints, which provides a brand new perspective for analyzing China’s consumer behavior because consumption since 1978 Volatility does exist for many problems that traditional theory can not explain. At present, some scholars in China have started to use these new theories to study the consumption problem. Song Zheng (1999) earlier quantified the impact of income uncertainty on Chinese household savings. This is undoubtedly an important beginning, but his treatment of the expected value is too simplistic. The selection of uncertain variables Inaccurate. It