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文章通过建立开放存取期刊和传统订阅期刊竞争的双边市场模型,分析了开放存取期刊与传统订阅期刊的竞争问题,指出了学术期刊市场上开放存取的发展趋势。研究结果表明:正常的市场运作机制将为传统订阅期刊和开放存取期刊留出一定的市场空间,政府采取政策或发布命令强制取消传统订阅期刊的做法是武断的;开放存取期刊增长越快,市场竞争越激烈;非盈利性期刊中开放存取期刊的增长快于盈利性期刊中开放存取期刊的增长;越来越多的获取期刊的涌现有利于提高整个社会的福利。
By establishing a bilateral market model of competition between open access journals and traditional subscription journals, the article analyzes the competition between open access journals and traditional subscription journals and points out the development trend of open access in academic journals market. The results show that: the normal market operation mechanism will set aside a certain market space for traditional subscription journals and open access journals, and it is arbitrary for the government to adopt policies or issue orders to cancel the traditional subscription journals; the faster the growth of open access journals , The fiercer the market competition is; the growth of open access journals in nonprofit journals is faster than the growth of open access journals in for-profit journals; and the emergence of more and more journals is conducive to raising the welfare of the entire society.