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尽管中国企业部门的宏观杠杆比例继续快速提升,但微观的数据分析显示,2014年以来,企业部门的资产负债率总体上开始下降,宏观杠杆的提升全部来源于资产周转率的恶化。从微观数据上看,企业在2014年之前的宏观杠杆上升来自于资产负债率恶化和资产周转率下降的共同作用;这之后企业已经开始以修复资产负债表为目的的杠杆去化进程。但由于资产周转率的下降,宏观杠杆继续上升。值得注意的是,2014—2016年的大部分时间里中国在工业品领域经历了比较明显的通货紧缩,这意味着企业的去杠杆行为实际上部分地启动了债务—通货紧缩的恶性循环,这使得杠杆去化十分困难。随着工业品通货紧缩的消除,企业杠杆去化的宏观条件显著改善,杠杆去化即将明显加速。
Although the macro-leverage ratio of China’s corporate sector continues to increase rapidly, micro-data analysis shows that since 2014, the asset-liability ratio of the corporate sector has generally begun to decline, and the increase in macro leverage has all come from the deterioration of asset turnover. From the micro data point of view, the company’s macro-leverage increase before 2014 comes from the combined effect of deteriorating asset-liability ratios and declining asset turnover; after that, companies have begun to leverage the process of repairing their balance sheets. However, due to the decline in asset turnover, macro leverage continues to rise. It is worth noting that during most of the period from 2014 to 2016, China experienced a relatively significant deflation in the industrial products sector, which means that the deleveraging of enterprises actually initiated in part the vicious cycle of debt-deflation. It is very difficult to delegitimize the leverage. With the elimination of deflation in industrial products, the macro conditions for leveraging companies have been significantly improved, and leverage has been significantly accelerated.