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房地产市场是世界上历次最严重的银行业危机的核心。房地产市场之所以具有系统重要性是因为银行用短期存款或者货币市场资金来提供长期抵押贷款。银行业务模式也并非一成不变。现今银行存贷款期限错配程度比以往任何时期都要大。银行在抵押贷款市场中占主导地位,而抵押贷款在银行和普通家庭的资产负债表中也占比最高。造成这种现象的其实是银行监管体系,而非市场力量或技术进步。更多的资本金可能会使银行更加安全,但是仍不能切断房地产周期和经济之间的联结。寿险公司和养老基金自身有能力在各个时间段分散流动性风险,而银行目前却不能。金融监管必须充分考虑并利用这种能力。
The real estate market is at the heart of one of the world’s most serious banking crises. The reason why the real estate market is systemically important is that banks provide long-term mortgages with short-term deposits or money market funds. The banking model is not static. The extent of misallocation of deposits and loans in banks today is greater than ever before. Banks dominate the mortgage market, while mortgage loans also dominate the balance sheets of banks and ordinary households. In fact, this phenomenon is caused by the banking regulatory system rather than market forces or technological progress. More capital may make the bank safer, but still can not cut off the link between the real estate cycle and the economy. Life insurance companies and pension funds are themselves capable of diversifying liquidity risk over time, but banks are not. Financial regulation must fully consider and use this ability.