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本文的目标是通过建立计量经济学模型来分析影响中国入境旅游市场需求的各种主要因素,并评价其发生变化时可能对中国入境旅游市场需求产生的影响。文章利用“一般时特殊性(general-to-specific)”的分析方法,以中国17个主要入境旅游客源国家或地区为主要研究对象,得到的结论是:决定中国入境旅游需求的主要因素是入境游客在中国旅游的成本,旅游客源国本身的经济条件,与中国相竞争的旅游目的地旅游价格水平和入境旅游者的“自我宣传效应、旅游持续性行为”。文章最后对中国入境旅游者的需求弹性进行了深入分析,为中国旅游管理部门和旅游企业的决策提供了一个较为可靠的依据。
The objective of this paper is to establish various econometric models to analyze the major factors affecting China’s inbound tourism market demand and to evaluate the possible impact on China’s inbound tourism market when these changes occur. By using the analysis method of “general-to-specific”, the article takes 17 major tourist destinations in China as the main research subjects and concludes that the major determinants of China’s inbound tourism demand The factors are the cost of inbound tourists traveling in China, the economic conditions of the tourist source country itself, the tourism price level of tourist destinations competing with China, and the self-promotion effect and continuing tourism behavior of inbound tourists. Finally, the article makes an in-depth analysis of the demand elasticity of Chinese inbound tourists and provides a more reliable basis for the decision-making of China’s tourism administration and tourism enterprises.