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情报与决策活动是密切相关的,情报减少决策中的不确定性。在效果意义上,不确定性应与决策者对行动方案的选择有关,而选择行动方案过程中的不确定性明显地与决策者执行每个方案的概率P有关。如果所有的P都相同,那么决策者便完全不能确定选择那个方案;如果决策者已确定了他的行动方案,那么,对某一i来说,P(αi)=1,而其它的概率为0。所以我们选用概率P的方差作为情报测度的主要成份。当P都相同时,方差为0,当某一P为1而其它的P为0时,方差最大。
Intelligence and decision-making activities are closely linked to intelligence that reduces uncertainty in decision-making. In the sense of an effect, the uncertainty should be related to the decision maker’s choice of course of action, and the uncertainty in the course of selecting the course of action is clearly related to the probability P that the decision maker will implement each program. If all the P’s are the same, then the decision maker is completely unsure of which one to choose; if the decision maker has determined his course of action, then P (αi) = 1 for some i, and the others 0. Therefore, we use the variance of probability P as the main component of intelligence measure. When P is the same, the variance is 0, and when one P is 1 and the other P is 0, the variance is the largest.