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当前环境问题日益受到人们的关注,其中温室气体排放是近年来国际社会关注的重点之一。温室气体减排与对外贸易、金融发展等主要变量之间的关联性尚未得到深入研究。利用1982~2011年的数据对碳排放、对外贸易、金融发展、能源消耗、经济增长等主要影响因素之间的关系进行实证研究,通过ARDL边限检验法对各个变量之间的长期协整关系进行检验,得出长期关系和短期误差修正模型。研究结果表明金融深化对碳排放的影响是非线性倒U型关系,能源消耗与碳排放量之间呈正相关关系,经济增长与碳排放量之间的关系满足环境库兹涅茨曲线,贸易开放与排放量之间呈负相关关系,对外贸易并未引起污染转移。中国应该积极参与国际分工,推动金融向有益于碳减排的方向发展。
The current environmental issues are receiving increasing attention. Among them, greenhouse gas emissions have been one of the focuses of the international community in recent years. The correlation between greenhouse gas emission reduction and major variables such as foreign trade and financial development has not been studied further. Using the data from 1982 to 2011, this paper conducts an empirical study on the relationship between the main influencing factors such as carbon emissions, foreign trade, financial development, energy consumption and economic growth. By ARDL marginal test, the long-term cointegration relationship among variables Test, get the long-term relationship and short-term error correction model. The results show that the impact of financial deepening on carbon emissions is a nonlinear inverse U-shaped relationship, the relationship between energy consumption and carbon emissions is positively correlated, the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions to meet the environmental Kuznets curve, trade liberalization and There was a negative correlation between emissions and foreign trade did not cause pollution transfer. China should actively participate in the international division of labor and promote the development of finance in a direction conducive to carbon reduction.